WASHINGTON, April 15, 2009 – Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports hit its lowest level in seven years in February as the number of containers dropped below the 1 million mark for the first time in half a decade, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight. Numbers began climbing again in March and April, but the 1 million mark won’t be seen again before May, and imports will continue to see significant declines compared with last year at least through the summer.
“These numbers come during the slowest part of the annual shipping cycle, so they’re expected to be low, but they nonetheless show the severity of the current recession and its impact on the retail industry,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The good news is that we’ve already seen the bottom for the year, and month-to-month numbers are already starting to climb. We’re still going to see double-digit declines compared with last year, but the size of the gap is starting to narrow.”
U.S. ports surveyed handled only 847,832 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in February, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 20.6 percent from January’s 1.07 million TEU and 31.3 percent from February 2008’s 1.23 million TEU. One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.
The number for February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, was the lowest since 818,342 TEU in March 2002. It was also the first time the total has fallen below the 1 million mark since February 2004, when ports in the survey handled 901,497 TEU, and marked the 20th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. The last year-over-year increase was in July 2007, when the 1.44 million TEU handled was up 3.4 percent from July 2006.
Volume for March was estimated at 930,142 TEU, down 19.7 percent from a year earlier, and April is forecast at 987,371 TEU, down 22 percent. The numbers are expected to rise above the 1 million mark again in May, but will nonetheless remain well below last year’s levels. May is forecast at 1.02 million TEU, down 21.5 percent from last year; June at 1.06 million TEU, down 18.3 percent; July at 1.11 million TEU, down 15.6 percent; and August at 1.15 million TEU, down 16 percent.
The first half of 2009 is now forecast at 5.9 million TEU, down 21 percent from the 7.5 million TEU seen in the first half of 2008. Total volume for 2008 was 15.2 million TEU, down 7.9 percent from 2007’s 16.5 million TEU and the lowest level since 2004’s 14 million TEU.
“The weak port cargo volumes have left port trucking with excess capacity, and cargo is moving without congestion either at the ports or through the inland system,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “Rail operations were affected by flooding in the northern states in March and April but disruptions were not sustained enough to cause significant delays.”
All U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.
Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members. Subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971.
Non-NRF members can contact IHS Global Insight Director of Business Development Diana Wyman at (202) 481-9265.The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.
IHS Global Insight (www.globalinsight.com) provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, IHS Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. IHS (NYSE: IHS, www.ihs.com) is a leading global source of critical information and insight that enables innovative and successful decision-making for customers ranging from governments and multinational companies to smaller companies and technical professionals. IHS employs approximately 3,800 people in 20 countries.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Retail - March Retail Sales Disappoint as Retailers Wrap up First Quarter, According to NRF
Washington – Several months of stronger-than-expected retail sales provided hope that the industry was poised to bounce back, but March retail sales demonstrate that the industry is continuing to struggle. According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales for March (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) decreased 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted from February and dropped 3.7 percent unadjusted over last year.
March retail sales released today by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) decreased 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted over February and decreased 10.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Retail industry sales for February were revised upward, increasing 0.3% instead of dipping 0.1% as originally reported.
“A chilly start to spring and a late Easter combined for dreary March sales,” said Rosalind Wells, Chief Economist for NRF. “To compensate for the Easter shift, retailers typically look at March and April together to get a better look at how their stores performed. Easter should give a much-needed boost to April sales.”
One of the only bright spots in March came from health and personal care stores, whose sales increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted over last month and 3.5 percent unadjusted over last year. Food and beverage stores sales also increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month but decreased 1.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The shift in Easter sales also played a role in consumer purchases of clothing and clothing accessories. Sales at those stores decreased 1.8 percent seasonally adjusted from February and decreased 8.7 percent unadjusted over March 2008. Electronics and appliance stores sales decreased 5.9 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and decreased 10.0 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores also decreased 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted over last month and decreased 3.0 percent unadjusted over last year.
The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.
March retail sales released today by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) decreased 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted over February and decreased 10.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Retail industry sales for February were revised upward, increasing 0.3% instead of dipping 0.1% as originally reported.
“A chilly start to spring and a late Easter combined for dreary March sales,” said Rosalind Wells, Chief Economist for NRF. “To compensate for the Easter shift, retailers typically look at March and April together to get a better look at how their stores performed. Easter should give a much-needed boost to April sales.”
One of the only bright spots in March came from health and personal care stores, whose sales increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted over last month and 3.5 percent unadjusted over last year. Food and beverage stores sales also increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month but decreased 1.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The shift in Easter sales also played a role in consumer purchases of clothing and clothing accessories. Sales at those stores decreased 1.8 percent seasonally adjusted from February and decreased 8.7 percent unadjusted over March 2008. Electronics and appliance stores sales decreased 5.9 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and decreased 10.0 percent unadjusted year-over-year. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores also decreased 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted over last month and decreased 3.0 percent unadjusted over last year.
The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.
Consumer - Confused about the economic forecast? Yeah, so are the forecasters
One day it's all doom and gloom, and the next seems to forecast the worst may be over. Only to be followed by more "oh no, the sky is falling" news.
Confused? Yup. Who isn't. Since the news of late seems to feel a bit schizophrenic, we thought we'd take a quick look at recent forecasts and reports so we can see in one place what the gurus are saying and seeing.
SNEWS® knows the current economic state is important for your business. This is one look at different ways it's affecting our industries and your business in a periodic and ongoing series of stories in SNEWS. This time around we take a look at forecasts about the future of the economy, sizing up statistics and surveys from research groups. Stay tuned for more in-depth reporting on the current situation as it develops and changes, from interviews with experts, closer looks at small businesses and how they are coping, to economic statistics, breaking news and how it affects consumers.
Usually April is all about the 15th, the day taxes are due for most Americans but this year that seemed to blow right past us. Instead, on April 15, more reports about the economy took the headlines, especially the monthly release from the Federal Reserve Board summarizing the state of the economy overall and in 12 U.S. districts.
Overall, the report noted a continued downturn with the forecast for more bad news in manufacturing, employment and commercial real estate in particular. Look between the lines, however, and you'll find even the Feds reported that five of the 12 districts were seeing some kind of moderation in the pace of the decline or, even better, actually a stabilization.
Geographically disparate
On the bad news front, the districts of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minneapolis were still slowing in economic activity that covers retail, manufacturing, business services, commercial and residential real estate.
But others saw a glimmer of light: New York was moving at a "subdued pace;" Chicago was declining more slowly; Kansas City showed "tentative signs of stabilization;" Dallas demonstrated "signs of stabilization at low levels;" and San Francisco had a "slower rate of decline in some sectors." (To see a large map of the districts similar to the one to the right, click here; to see the full report from the Federal Reserve, click here.)
In addition, that and the mixed bag of reports offered on the same day by the Treasury Department in its monthly survey of lending by the 21 biggest recipients of bank bailout money caused Wall Street to nearly party in the streets. On April 15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up at 8029.62, and on April 17 continued the trend, closing at 8131.33; the S&P 500 closed up at 852.06 and on April 17 logged another small jump to 869.60; and the Nasdaq closed up at 1626.80, also ticking upward at the close of the week to 1673.07.
But wait, not so fast… In the same mid-month flood of reports, we saw unemployment go up, consumer prices dropping another 0.1 percent, unexpected drops in retail sales (Click here to see that April 15, 2009, SNEWS News Release), import levels hitting their lowest level in seven years (Click here to see that April 15, 2009, SNEWS News Release) and home prices and construction still declining. Those add to evidence we are still locked tightly in a recession.
Business leaders don't agree
So how positive are people? A week earlier the Conference Board, which regularly measures "CEO Confidence," noted the top bosses in the country were still dragging their chins. Indeed, the level of confidence was up to 30 from a lowly 24 last quarter (a reading of more than 50 means more positive than negative results), but that's still a long way from being in the black when it comes to confidence.
But despite lagging confidence, more of the CEOs surveyed, when asked to look six months ahead, were reporting they expected improved business conditions: 7 percent said they expected things to get better compared to only 11 percent last quarter; and when asked about expected improvements in their own sectors, 26 percent said things would look up in six months, which is way up from only 12 percent last quarter. Of course, this was the same bunch that in February 2008 reported that a recession was unlikely.
In another recent survey of business leaders released on April 7, the Business Roundtable index -- which tracks the outlook of CEOs of some of the country's biggest companies -- dropped to its lowest level since the survey began in 2002. This group was basically glum, glum about today, glum about yesterday, and glum about tomorrow, noting they expected their companies' sales and spending to drop in the next six months.
A month earlier in early March, advisors polled for Charles Schwab's Independent Advisor Outlook Study were split on whether the economy would pick up by year's end or not. Just over half (53 percent) who were polled in late January said they thought the S&P 500 would rise in the next six months. (We'll have to wait and see if the rise this week is going to stick.) When asked in January to predict how long the recession would last, 44 percent said they estimated it would be wrapping up by December 2009, while 41 percent gave it another year -- to December 2010.
In a February 2009 statement, the government said the economic contraction for the fourth quarter of 2008, which had been estimated at 3.8 percent, was actually 6.2 percent. That was the economy's worse showing in a quarter-century. But others have along the way warned the public as well as the economists to not freak out since a recession is a lot different than a depression. Speaking in January, economist Chris Thornberg, reportedly one of the first to predict the recession, said Americans are wont to overreact and although he has been known to predict doom and gloom, he said this has gotten out of hand.
"Whoa, time out…deep, deep breath," he told a group of appraisers gathered in the Sacramento, Calif., area, as reported in the Sacramento Bee. "We're in the midst of what I would call a nasty recession. Like a bad cold, you'll get over it."
At that time, he said he expected this recession to end up like the last large downturn in the early 1980s, which drove national unemployment to 10.8 percent. When he spoke in January, the rate was 7.2 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported this week unemployment as of March 2009 had risen to 8.5 percent -- the highest level in more than a quarter of a century but still off the 1980s figure.
Consumers more depressed
But what about consumers? BIGresearch reported in January that consumers weren't so glum as they had been: Nearly a quarter (24.7 percent) reported they were confident or very confident in the chances for a strong economy reappearing, rising from the one in five rating (20 percent) at the end of 2008. January's 24.7 percent figure was the highest reading since September 2008 when it was 28.3 percent.
Times change, though, and sometimes quickly. Only two months later, in its March report, BIG found the confidence in chances for a strong economy had again plummeted -- to 19.5 percent, down more than five points from a year ago and trailing a reading from two years ago by more than half (down from 46.9 percent).
No, the worst isn't over although hints of some dim light are there. Yes, forecasters don't agree. And the statistics and forecasts are at best unpredictable. Wish SNEWS had a crystal ball. --Therese Iknoian
Confused? Yup. Who isn't. Since the news of late seems to feel a bit schizophrenic, we thought we'd take a quick look at recent forecasts and reports so we can see in one place what the gurus are saying and seeing.
SNEWS® knows the current economic state is important for your business. This is one look at different ways it's affecting our industries and your business in a periodic and ongoing series of stories in SNEWS. This time around we take a look at forecasts about the future of the economy, sizing up statistics and surveys from research groups. Stay tuned for more in-depth reporting on the current situation as it develops and changes, from interviews with experts, closer looks at small businesses and how they are coping, to economic statistics, breaking news and how it affects consumers.
Usually April is all about the 15th, the day taxes are due for most Americans but this year that seemed to blow right past us. Instead, on April 15, more reports about the economy took the headlines, especially the monthly release from the Federal Reserve Board summarizing the state of the economy overall and in 12 U.S. districts.
Overall, the report noted a continued downturn with the forecast for more bad news in manufacturing, employment and commercial real estate in particular. Look between the lines, however, and you'll find even the Feds reported that five of the 12 districts were seeing some kind of moderation in the pace of the decline or, even better, actually a stabilization.
Geographically disparate
On the bad news front, the districts of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minneapolis were still slowing in economic activity that covers retail, manufacturing, business services, commercial and residential real estate.
But others saw a glimmer of light: New York was moving at a "subdued pace;" Chicago was declining more slowly; Kansas City showed "tentative signs of stabilization;" Dallas demonstrated "signs of stabilization at low levels;" and San Francisco had a "slower rate of decline in some sectors." (To see a large map of the districts similar to the one to the right, click here; to see the full report from the Federal Reserve, click here.)
In addition, that and the mixed bag of reports offered on the same day by the Treasury Department in its monthly survey of lending by the 21 biggest recipients of bank bailout money caused Wall Street to nearly party in the streets. On April 15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up at 8029.62, and on April 17 continued the trend, closing at 8131.33; the S&P 500 closed up at 852.06 and on April 17 logged another small jump to 869.60; and the Nasdaq closed up at 1626.80, also ticking upward at the close of the week to 1673.07.
But wait, not so fast… In the same mid-month flood of reports, we saw unemployment go up, consumer prices dropping another 0.1 percent, unexpected drops in retail sales (Click here to see that April 15, 2009, SNEWS News Release), import levels hitting their lowest level in seven years (Click here to see that April 15, 2009, SNEWS News Release) and home prices and construction still declining. Those add to evidence we are still locked tightly in a recession.
Business leaders don't agree
So how positive are people? A week earlier the Conference Board, which regularly measures "CEO Confidence," noted the top bosses in the country were still dragging their chins. Indeed, the level of confidence was up to 30 from a lowly 24 last quarter (a reading of more than 50 means more positive than negative results), but that's still a long way from being in the black when it comes to confidence.
But despite lagging confidence, more of the CEOs surveyed, when asked to look six months ahead, were reporting they expected improved business conditions: 7 percent said they expected things to get better compared to only 11 percent last quarter; and when asked about expected improvements in their own sectors, 26 percent said things would look up in six months, which is way up from only 12 percent last quarter. Of course, this was the same bunch that in February 2008 reported that a recession was unlikely.
In another recent survey of business leaders released on April 7, the Business Roundtable index -- which tracks the outlook of CEOs of some of the country's biggest companies -- dropped to its lowest level since the survey began in 2002. This group was basically glum, glum about today, glum about yesterday, and glum about tomorrow, noting they expected their companies' sales and spending to drop in the next six months.
A month earlier in early March, advisors polled for Charles Schwab's Independent Advisor Outlook Study were split on whether the economy would pick up by year's end or not. Just over half (53 percent) who were polled in late January said they thought the S&P 500 would rise in the next six months. (We'll have to wait and see if the rise this week is going to stick.) When asked in January to predict how long the recession would last, 44 percent said they estimated it would be wrapping up by December 2009, while 41 percent gave it another year -- to December 2010.
In a February 2009 statement, the government said the economic contraction for the fourth quarter of 2008, which had been estimated at 3.8 percent, was actually 6.2 percent. That was the economy's worse showing in a quarter-century. But others have along the way warned the public as well as the economists to not freak out since a recession is a lot different than a depression. Speaking in January, economist Chris Thornberg, reportedly one of the first to predict the recession, said Americans are wont to overreact and although he has been known to predict doom and gloom, he said this has gotten out of hand.
"Whoa, time out…deep, deep breath," he told a group of appraisers gathered in the Sacramento, Calif., area, as reported in the Sacramento Bee. "We're in the midst of what I would call a nasty recession. Like a bad cold, you'll get over it."
At that time, he said he expected this recession to end up like the last large downturn in the early 1980s, which drove national unemployment to 10.8 percent. When he spoke in January, the rate was 7.2 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported this week unemployment as of March 2009 had risen to 8.5 percent -- the highest level in more than a quarter of a century but still off the 1980s figure.
Consumers more depressed
But what about consumers? BIGresearch reported in January that consumers weren't so glum as they had been: Nearly a quarter (24.7 percent) reported they were confident or very confident in the chances for a strong economy reappearing, rising from the one in five rating (20 percent) at the end of 2008. January's 24.7 percent figure was the highest reading since September 2008 when it was 28.3 percent.
Times change, though, and sometimes quickly. Only two months later, in its March report, BIG found the confidence in chances for a strong economy had again plummeted -- to 19.5 percent, down more than five points from a year ago and trailing a reading from two years ago by more than half (down from 46.9 percent).
No, the worst isn't over although hints of some dim light are there. Yes, forecasters don't agree. And the statistics and forecasts are at best unpredictable. Wish SNEWS had a crystal ball. --Therese Iknoian
Social Media - SNEWS Mini-Survey provides look at how industry folk are utilizing social media
The SNEWS® Mini Survey that ended April 20, 2009, asked, "Have you found social networking sites to be beneficial to your business?" A reflection of the times, a whopping 65 percent answered yes, with 35 percent indicating it had no benefit to them.
In our follow-up question to those who answered yes, we asked respondents to select all of the social networking sites they used. Not surprisingly, Facebook led the pack with 50 percent of the responses, followed closely by Twitter with 45 percent. We would surmise, given the recent explosion of Twitter, that if we asked this same question in another six months, those that tweet and twitter among peers and associates for business would be significantly higher, perhaps even surpassing Facebook.
LinkedIn and Plaxo garnered 40 percent and 25 percent, respectively, with the "other" selection earning a 30 percent response. MySpace garnered a paltry 5 percent nod, equal to those who selected "Your own social networking site" as a response.
Our new survey question, "Where do you get most of your business or industry news?" is now live and awaiting your feedback.
To make your vote count, simply go to the SNEWS Reader Poll section in the right navigation bar of every web page in SNEWS or click here. --SNEWS® Editors
In our follow-up question to those who answered yes, we asked respondents to select all of the social networking sites they used. Not surprisingly, Facebook led the pack with 50 percent of the responses, followed closely by Twitter with 45 percent. We would surmise, given the recent explosion of Twitter, that if we asked this same question in another six months, those that tweet and twitter among peers and associates for business would be significantly higher, perhaps even surpassing Facebook.
LinkedIn and Plaxo garnered 40 percent and 25 percent, respectively, with the "other" selection earning a 30 percent response. MySpace garnered a paltry 5 percent nod, equal to those who selected "Your own social networking site" as a response.
Our new survey question, "Where do you get most of your business or industry news?" is now live and awaiting your feedback.
To make your vote count, simply go to the SNEWS Reader Poll section in the right navigation bar of every web page in SNEWS or click here. --SNEWS® Editors
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
2009 trade shows still draw a buying and selling crowd, albeit smaller ones
The outdoor, fitness and sports industries are not alone in commiserating about trade shows and declining attendance and exhibiting. In 2008, the exhibition industry, including all types of trade shows and conventions, declined 3.1 percent, marking the first annual decrease in business since 2002, according to the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (www.ceir.org).
Overall, four key industry metrics saw declines in 2008, with net square footage for shows dropping 2 percent, the number of exhibitors dropping 2.6 percent, attendance decreasing by 4 percent and revenue slipping 3.5 percent.
"Most trade show sectors are down," Michael Hart, editor in chief of Tradeshow Week Magazine, told SNEWS®. "The most significant problem has been attendance. It's not that companies aren't going, but where they used to send 10 people, they're now sending two or three." Hart added that smaller exhibitors are withdrawing from shows, while larger exhibitors are using smaller booths.
Hart said that the recession has hit some types of shows more than others. For market segments with multiple shows, the main shows are faring well, while smaller shows serving that particular market are hurting. "Some smaller shows have to cancel completely," he said. This holds true for trade shows serving certain sports markets.
"The shows that are annual and service a niche market, such as Interbike, have been affected less than a show that runs multiple times a year and is in a more competitive landscape, like ASR," said Andy Tompkins, group show director for the Action Sports, Interbike and Health & Fitness Business shows within the Nielsen Sports Group (www.nielsensportsgroup.com). ASR (Action Sports Retailer) not only has multiple shows, but also competes with Surf Expo and non-sports-specific shows such as MAGIC.
Smaller, niche shows suffering more
Tompkins said manufacturers and retailers are making hard choices and participating in fewer events for their particular market. While this has had a negative effect on ASR, large shows that occur once a year, such as SIA and Interbike, he said, are doing relatively well because they offer buyers the sole opportunity to reach their respective channels. What 2009 will hold has only begun to see a preview in shows in the first quarter of the year. For example:
>> Snowsports Industries America (SIA) reported buyer attendance dropped 5 percent for this year's January 2009 SIA show in Las Vegas. (Click here to see a Feb. 9, 2009, SNEWS story.)
>> Nielsen reported attendance at the 2009 Outdoor Retailer Winter Market show in Salt Lake City in January dropped about 10 percent (Click here to see a Jan. 29, 2009, SNEWS story, "Outdoor Retailer Winter Market light on traffic, big on smiles.")
>> WSA, a twice-annual shoe show, saw declines at its February show of 18 percent in overall attendance, which covers all attendees from retailers to exhibitors to media.
>> Also suffering, the January 2009 ASR show in San Diego was noticeably smaller this year, with 100,000 net square feet, compared to 131,000 net square feet in 2008, or down about 24 percent. Also, this year the show included 100 fewer brands than the previous year or about a 20-percent drop from 500 to 400 brands.
>> Not as bad as some nor as good as others, the IHRSA commercial fitness show in mid-March reported declines in attendance of about 15 percent, and in exhibitors and in the show's square footage about 20 percent. (Click here to see a March 23, 2009, SNEWS story on IHRSA and here to see a March 30, 2009, story on IHRSA, reporting square footage.)
>> Shows outside the boundaries of North America weren't immune although fared better. At the winter ispo sporting goods show in Munich, Germany, in late January, early attendance figures showed a drop of about 5 percent and exhibitor numbers were down less than 4 percent. (Click here to see a Feb. 5, 2009, story.)
Some of the declines began last year, with the niche FlyFishing Retailer Expo in Denver in September seeing attendance drop 10 percent, and the 2008 Health & Fitness Business seeing lower numbers of attendees by about 16 percent. In this case, the really striking figure out of HFB was in booth space, drayage and staff -- places where exhibitors may try to slice and dice when they still feel they have to be at a show. At HFB in July 2008, even with two additional exhibitors, the show dropped by nearly 13 percent in square footage, but exhibitors also sent 220 fewer staff members, and drayage declined significantly. Some show pundits feel this type of trend may continue across many shows.
Quality vs. quantity
Even when attendance drops, it does not always mean that the show is suddenly a waste of a company's time and attention. Experts agree that exhibitors and attendees remain happy as long as the show continues to draw a quality crowd. As long as exhibitors can interact with influential buyers and fewer tire-kickers, they find real value in the gathering. This was the case for the Eastern Outdoor Reps Association regional show held in February in Greenville, S.C.
"Morale was really good despite the drop in attendance," said EORA Executive Director Debbie Motz. This year the show drew 60 fewer buyers than last year (for a total of 588 buyers), but 291 stores were represented, which was four more than last year.
While the recession is impacting the trade show industry, there is evidence that it will not completely kill attendance and erode the quality of shows.
"Over the last six recessions, we've trended key performance indicators like the buying influences of attendees," said Joe Federbush, vice president of sales and marketing for Exhibit Surveys (www.exhibitsurveys.com). "We've found that the amount of square footage and number of attendees goes down, but the quality of the audience remains pretty strong." He said companies may be sending fewer people, but they're sending more of the final decision makers. "The value of the trade shows is still there for the attendees and the exhibitors."
Nevertheless, Federbush said that these days exhibitors and attendees are demanding more detailed information on their ROI -- the return they get from investing in a show.
"The show organizers really have to be proving the value to attendees and exhibitors," said Federbush. "More now than ever they need to be leveraging their registration data to come out with some more solid numbers. They need to be surveying the quality and quantity of attendees."
Tompkins said that trade show operators within the Nielsen Sports Group are working harder to better understand the buyers who attend the shows, how they utilize the shows and what impact exhibit presentations have on their purchasing decisions. "We've done a series of surveys about buyer behavior," said Tompkins, adding that more reports are generated to show things such as how much a buyer purchases and how many storefronts they are buying for. "Illustrating buying power and storefronts is becoming increasingly important to show producers because retail channels are consolidating," said Tompkins. "Fewer people are doing the buying. Whereas 10 years ago there were 100 specialty shops servicing an area, now there may be 50."
Outdoor Retailer recently sent a 38-question survey to 18,000 retailers and received 1,500 replies, including some surprising information. "Seventy-two percent of the retailers said they wrote orders at the show. That's much higher than we thought," said show director Kenji Haroutunian. "The results were really helpful, and we need to do these surveys every year."
While show producers are generating more data to satisfy customer demand, he and most other trade show managers have not had to offer deep discounts to exhibitors and attendees to draw them to shows. While ASR dropped its exhibiting space rates by 25 percent, other shows such as Outdoor Retailer, Interbike and HFB have for the most part maintained their pricing, meaning no price increases for inflation either.
"That has been possible because the cost of travel has gone down quickly," said Hart of Tradeshow Week. "The cost of hotel rooms in most cities and the cost of plane tickets have dropped in the last six months."
Also, many show producers were well-prepared to weather an economic storm.
"The last recession in 2002 really impacted the exhibitions industry, because people were afraid to travel (due to the 9/11 terrorist attacks)," said Hart. "A lot of the lessons the exhibitions industry learned then they have not forgotten. They've learned how to get lean very quickly."
What's next?
While the trade show industry is doing OK now, the big question is what things will look like later this year or next year. Hart said that many trade shows did not change in size and scope because exhibitors were locked into binding contracts made the previous year. Many of those exhibitors are likely scrutinizing their budgets and considering whether or not they will attend in 2010, or to what extent they will participate. "If your business is having trouble, you might not make a commitment to go next year," said Hart. "Of course, that could change if the overall economy picks up in the third and fourth quarters."
In any case, Hart and others do not think we're going to see the death of trade shows anytime soon. "Even if business is bad," said Hart, "trade show producers are not flipping out."--Marcus Woolf
Overall, four key industry metrics saw declines in 2008, with net square footage for shows dropping 2 percent, the number of exhibitors dropping 2.6 percent, attendance decreasing by 4 percent and revenue slipping 3.5 percent.
"Most trade show sectors are down," Michael Hart, editor in chief of Tradeshow Week Magazine, told SNEWS®. "The most significant problem has been attendance. It's not that companies aren't going, but where they used to send 10 people, they're now sending two or three." Hart added that smaller exhibitors are withdrawing from shows, while larger exhibitors are using smaller booths.
Hart said that the recession has hit some types of shows more than others. For market segments with multiple shows, the main shows are faring well, while smaller shows serving that particular market are hurting. "Some smaller shows have to cancel completely," he said. This holds true for trade shows serving certain sports markets.
"The shows that are annual and service a niche market, such as Interbike, have been affected less than a show that runs multiple times a year and is in a more competitive landscape, like ASR," said Andy Tompkins, group show director for the Action Sports, Interbike and Health & Fitness Business shows within the Nielsen Sports Group (www.nielsensportsgroup.com). ASR (Action Sports Retailer) not only has multiple shows, but also competes with Surf Expo and non-sports-specific shows such as MAGIC.
Smaller, niche shows suffering more
Tompkins said manufacturers and retailers are making hard choices and participating in fewer events for their particular market. While this has had a negative effect on ASR, large shows that occur once a year, such as SIA and Interbike, he said, are doing relatively well because they offer buyers the sole opportunity to reach their respective channels. What 2009 will hold has only begun to see a preview in shows in the first quarter of the year. For example:
>> Snowsports Industries America (SIA) reported buyer attendance dropped 5 percent for this year's January 2009 SIA show in Las Vegas. (Click here to see a Feb. 9, 2009, SNEWS story.)
>> Nielsen reported attendance at the 2009 Outdoor Retailer Winter Market show in Salt Lake City in January dropped about 10 percent (Click here to see a Jan. 29, 2009, SNEWS story, "Outdoor Retailer Winter Market light on traffic, big on smiles.")
>> WSA, a twice-annual shoe show, saw declines at its February show of 18 percent in overall attendance, which covers all attendees from retailers to exhibitors to media.
>> Also suffering, the January 2009 ASR show in San Diego was noticeably smaller this year, with 100,000 net square feet, compared to 131,000 net square feet in 2008, or down about 24 percent. Also, this year the show included 100 fewer brands than the previous year or about a 20-percent drop from 500 to 400 brands.
>> Not as bad as some nor as good as others, the IHRSA commercial fitness show in mid-March reported declines in attendance of about 15 percent, and in exhibitors and in the show's square footage about 20 percent. (Click here to see a March 23, 2009, SNEWS story on IHRSA and here to see a March 30, 2009, story on IHRSA, reporting square footage.)
>> Shows outside the boundaries of North America weren't immune although fared better. At the winter ispo sporting goods show in Munich, Germany, in late January, early attendance figures showed a drop of about 5 percent and exhibitor numbers were down less than 4 percent. (Click here to see a Feb. 5, 2009, story.)
Some of the declines began last year, with the niche FlyFishing Retailer Expo in Denver in September seeing attendance drop 10 percent, and the 2008 Health & Fitness Business seeing lower numbers of attendees by about 16 percent. In this case, the really striking figure out of HFB was in booth space, drayage and staff -- places where exhibitors may try to slice and dice when they still feel they have to be at a show. At HFB in July 2008, even with two additional exhibitors, the show dropped by nearly 13 percent in square footage, but exhibitors also sent 220 fewer staff members, and drayage declined significantly. Some show pundits feel this type of trend may continue across many shows.
Quality vs. quantity
Even when attendance drops, it does not always mean that the show is suddenly a waste of a company's time and attention. Experts agree that exhibitors and attendees remain happy as long as the show continues to draw a quality crowd. As long as exhibitors can interact with influential buyers and fewer tire-kickers, they find real value in the gathering. This was the case for the Eastern Outdoor Reps Association regional show held in February in Greenville, S.C.
"Morale was really good despite the drop in attendance," said EORA Executive Director Debbie Motz. This year the show drew 60 fewer buyers than last year (for a total of 588 buyers), but 291 stores were represented, which was four more than last year.
While the recession is impacting the trade show industry, there is evidence that it will not completely kill attendance and erode the quality of shows.
"Over the last six recessions, we've trended key performance indicators like the buying influences of attendees," said Joe Federbush, vice president of sales and marketing for Exhibit Surveys (www.exhibitsurveys.com). "We've found that the amount of square footage and number of attendees goes down, but the quality of the audience remains pretty strong." He said companies may be sending fewer people, but they're sending more of the final decision makers. "The value of the trade shows is still there for the attendees and the exhibitors."
Nevertheless, Federbush said that these days exhibitors and attendees are demanding more detailed information on their ROI -- the return they get from investing in a show.
"The show organizers really have to be proving the value to attendees and exhibitors," said Federbush. "More now than ever they need to be leveraging their registration data to come out with some more solid numbers. They need to be surveying the quality and quantity of attendees."
Tompkins said that trade show operators within the Nielsen Sports Group are working harder to better understand the buyers who attend the shows, how they utilize the shows and what impact exhibit presentations have on their purchasing decisions. "We've done a series of surveys about buyer behavior," said Tompkins, adding that more reports are generated to show things such as how much a buyer purchases and how many storefronts they are buying for. "Illustrating buying power and storefronts is becoming increasingly important to show producers because retail channels are consolidating," said Tompkins. "Fewer people are doing the buying. Whereas 10 years ago there were 100 specialty shops servicing an area, now there may be 50."
Outdoor Retailer recently sent a 38-question survey to 18,000 retailers and received 1,500 replies, including some surprising information. "Seventy-two percent of the retailers said they wrote orders at the show. That's much higher than we thought," said show director Kenji Haroutunian. "The results were really helpful, and we need to do these surveys every year."
While show producers are generating more data to satisfy customer demand, he and most other trade show managers have not had to offer deep discounts to exhibitors and attendees to draw them to shows. While ASR dropped its exhibiting space rates by 25 percent, other shows such as Outdoor Retailer, Interbike and HFB have for the most part maintained their pricing, meaning no price increases for inflation either.
"That has been possible because the cost of travel has gone down quickly," said Hart of Tradeshow Week. "The cost of hotel rooms in most cities and the cost of plane tickets have dropped in the last six months."
Also, many show producers were well-prepared to weather an economic storm.
"The last recession in 2002 really impacted the exhibitions industry, because people were afraid to travel (due to the 9/11 terrorist attacks)," said Hart. "A lot of the lessons the exhibitions industry learned then they have not forgotten. They've learned how to get lean very quickly."
What's next?
While the trade show industry is doing OK now, the big question is what things will look like later this year or next year. Hart said that many trade shows did not change in size and scope because exhibitors were locked into binding contracts made the previous year. Many of those exhibitors are likely scrutinizing their budgets and considering whether or not they will attend in 2010, or to what extent they will participate. "If your business is having trouble, you might not make a commitment to go next year," said Hart. "Of course, that could change if the overall economy picks up in the third and fourth quarters."
In any case, Hart and others do not think we're going to see the death of trade shows anytime soon. "Even if business is bad," said Hart, "trade show producers are not flipping out."--Marcus Woolf
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Sourcing - Eager to Limit Inventory Risk, Brands Push Lead Times Lower
Eager to Limit Inventory Risk,Brands Push Lead Times Lower
Some outdoor brands are pushing back their orders for final orders and greige goods for Fall 2009 and Spring 2010 and pressuring suppliers to shorten lead times and give up margin as a contraction in retail sales works its way up the supply chain, according to textile and contracting sources. “People are trying to trim the lead times,” noted Chris Parkes, national sales manager for Concept III International, which develops sources and produces apparel for a variety of outdoor brands. “No one wants to get stuck with product.”
Parkes cited one example where a client who normally commits to ordering 70% of the prior year’s goods by December had only committed to 40%. Still, he noted that Concept III recently got an unanticipated order for 9,000 square yards of technical fabric. “There still seems to be orders out there for fall/winter,” he said.
Some brands and retailers want to wait until after spring retail sales data comes in to adjust their final orders for Spring 2010, said one textile executive. “Brands are holding on as long as they can,” he said. “There is a trend for greige goods to be forecast later. That makes it more difficult for us to deliver on time.”
This in turn has shortened lead times for textile mills, according to Roger Berrier, EVP for sales, marketing and Asian operations at Unifi, which makes recycled polyester Repreve yarns used by outdoor apparel brands. “Today, mills will not give us a soft order until they have an order themselves,” said Berrier. “Instead of giving us six weeks notice, we are getting an order within two weeks of delivery.”
Unifi is shortening production runs, which raises its machine change over costs. That’s better, though, than being stuck with inventory “because some of these programs just get canceled with no warning.”
Sources also report that brands have pushed back plans to introduce new product figuring that neither retailers nor consumers would gamble on it in Fall 2009 and Spring 2010. Many, however, are pushing for innovations for Fall 2010 on the assumption the economy will improve by then.
Brands are also pushing for price cuts of 3 to 15%. But with Asian mills earning operating margins of 12 to 18 points compared to 40 to 60 once enjoyed by U.S. mills, such concession are hard to come by, said Parkes. The environment has incentivized apparel mills to cut costs. This has lead more intense quality control by U.S. brands, which have rejected fabric they would have accepted a year ago.
For retailers, all this could result in later deliveries on top of already light pre-season orders. That raises the likelihood that they will run out of stock on some items. That’s a risk many retailers favor over being stuck with inventory.
“Everyone is walking on egg shells,” said Parkes. “The Asian mills don't understand what's happening. They've never seen this before.”
Still, Parkes urged brands to push their suppliers to continue innovating and be flexible. “As you are closing down Fall 2010 and things change at retail, don't be afraid to go back to your suppliers and tell them this or that change has to be made,” he said. “Don't accept 10 weeks to develop. You will have to find suppliers who will work with you and turn things in four to six. In the past, brands could say ‘we will do that next season,’ but you can’t do that in this market. If you miss it, the consumer will buy it from someone else.”
Some outdoor brands are pushing back their orders for final orders and greige goods for Fall 2009 and Spring 2010 and pressuring suppliers to shorten lead times and give up margin as a contraction in retail sales works its way up the supply chain, according to textile and contracting sources. “People are trying to trim the lead times,” noted Chris Parkes, national sales manager for Concept III International, which develops sources and produces apparel for a variety of outdoor brands. “No one wants to get stuck with product.”
Parkes cited one example where a client who normally commits to ordering 70% of the prior year’s goods by December had only committed to 40%. Still, he noted that Concept III recently got an unanticipated order for 9,000 square yards of technical fabric. “There still seems to be orders out there for fall/winter,” he said.
Some brands and retailers want to wait until after spring retail sales data comes in to adjust their final orders for Spring 2010, said one textile executive. “Brands are holding on as long as they can,” he said. “There is a trend for greige goods to be forecast later. That makes it more difficult for us to deliver on time.”
This in turn has shortened lead times for textile mills, according to Roger Berrier, EVP for sales, marketing and Asian operations at Unifi, which makes recycled polyester Repreve yarns used by outdoor apparel brands. “Today, mills will not give us a soft order until they have an order themselves,” said Berrier. “Instead of giving us six weeks notice, we are getting an order within two weeks of delivery.”
Unifi is shortening production runs, which raises its machine change over costs. That’s better, though, than being stuck with inventory “because some of these programs just get canceled with no warning.”
Sources also report that brands have pushed back plans to introduce new product figuring that neither retailers nor consumers would gamble on it in Fall 2009 and Spring 2010. Many, however, are pushing for innovations for Fall 2010 on the assumption the economy will improve by then.
Brands are also pushing for price cuts of 3 to 15%. But with Asian mills earning operating margins of 12 to 18 points compared to 40 to 60 once enjoyed by U.S. mills, such concession are hard to come by, said Parkes. The environment has incentivized apparel mills to cut costs. This has lead more intense quality control by U.S. brands, which have rejected fabric they would have accepted a year ago.
For retailers, all this could result in later deliveries on top of already light pre-season orders. That raises the likelihood that they will run out of stock on some items. That’s a risk many retailers favor over being stuck with inventory.
“Everyone is walking on egg shells,” said Parkes. “The Asian mills don't understand what's happening. They've never seen this before.”
Still, Parkes urged brands to push their suppliers to continue innovating and be flexible. “As you are closing down Fall 2010 and things change at retail, don't be afraid to go back to your suppliers and tell them this or that change has to be made,” he said. “Don't accept 10 weeks to develop. You will have to find suppliers who will work with you and turn things in four to six. In the past, brands could say ‘we will do that next season,’ but you can’t do that in this market. If you miss it, the consumer will buy it from someone else.”
Monday, April 6, 2009
Business Plan - Did you hear?...Global retail sales of organic cotton products up 63 percent in '08
Thanks to global brands and retailers, such as Nike and Pottery Barn, retail sales around the world of organic cotton apparel and home textile products shot up 63 percent in 2008, according to a recently released report from Organic Exchange.
That year, sales reached $3.2 billion compared to $1.9 billion a year earlier, as reported in the non-profit’s "Organic Cotton Market Report 2007-2008."
Contributing to that leap are also outdoor industry brands like Patagonia, a pioneer in using organic cotton in the early 1990s, even switching to it exclusively in 1996 for all its cotton apparel. In 2005 and 2006, Patagonia was on the Organic Exchange’s top five list of programs, but has been bumped down the list as larger, more mainstream players have entered the market.
Now, among the top 10 organic cotton-using brands and retailers globally were five U.S. companies: Wal-Mart, Nike, Anvil, Pottery Barn and Greensource. Elsewhere, they included C&A in Belgium, H&M in Sweden, Zara in Spain, Coop Switzerland and Hess Natur in Germany."
The most important news surrounding this figure is the fact that organic is no longer a novelty. With Volcom, Billabong, Nike, Marks and Spencer, H&M and others all selling organic now, the general public is learning the benefits of organic, the perils of traditionally grown cotton, and making the connection between health, the environment and their wallets," Jen Rapp, a spokeswoman for Patagonia, told SNEWS®.
Rapp noted that Patagonia believes 2008's massive sales growth is a result of widely known brands, such as Wal-Mart, selling organic to their large customer bases.
"The beauty is that with brands such as Wal-Mart on the organic cotton bandwagon, and the number of farmers that are switching to organic farming, the cost of organic is going to continue to become more and more affordable, allowing this growth to continue in the current economy," she said.
The Organic Exchange found in its research that most brands and retailers selling organic cotton products remain committed to their sustainability plans and upbeat about market growth. They reported they have plans to expand their product lines 24 percent and 33 percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively. It estimates that the segment will be a $4 billion market in 2009 and a $5.3 billion market in 2010.
Additionally, the organization's "Organic Cotton Farm and Fiber Report 2008" reported that the number of organic cotton farmers grew worldwide by 152 percent in 2007/2008. Organic cotton production hit 145,872 metric tons, which is equivalent to 668,581 bales (a bale is 480 pounds). It was grown on 400,000 acres in 22 countries worldwide.
During 2008, the report noted, certified organic cotton fiber supplies grew by 95 percent, significantly higher than annual growth rates of 45 percent in 2006 and 53 percent in 2007.
"Farmers who planted on speculation or expanded without market partners may have shifted the market into a state of oversupply in 2009," said LaRhea Pepper, Organic Exchange's senior director, in a statement, noting that the non-profit strongly discourages farmers from taking this kind of risk.
"Brands may want to explore opportunities for expanding their organic programs with their business partners, as for the first time in many years, supplies of organic fiber, yarns, and fabrics are more available than in previous years," Pepper added.
Founded in 2002, Organic Exchange (www.organicexchange.org) facilitates expansion of the organic cotton fiber supply by working with the entire chain of supply, from farmers to retailers, to help develop organic cotton programs.--Wendy Geister
That year, sales reached $3.2 billion compared to $1.9 billion a year earlier, as reported in the non-profit’s "Organic Cotton Market Report 2007-2008."
Contributing to that leap are also outdoor industry brands like Patagonia, a pioneer in using organic cotton in the early 1990s, even switching to it exclusively in 1996 for all its cotton apparel. In 2005 and 2006, Patagonia was on the Organic Exchange’s top five list of programs, but has been bumped down the list as larger, more mainstream players have entered the market.
Now, among the top 10 organic cotton-using brands and retailers globally were five U.S. companies: Wal-Mart, Nike, Anvil, Pottery Barn and Greensource. Elsewhere, they included C&A in Belgium, H&M in Sweden, Zara in Spain, Coop Switzerland and Hess Natur in Germany."
The most important news surrounding this figure is the fact that organic is no longer a novelty. With Volcom, Billabong, Nike, Marks and Spencer, H&M and others all selling organic now, the general public is learning the benefits of organic, the perils of traditionally grown cotton, and making the connection between health, the environment and their wallets," Jen Rapp, a spokeswoman for Patagonia, told SNEWS®.
Rapp noted that Patagonia believes 2008's massive sales growth is a result of widely known brands, such as Wal-Mart, selling organic to their large customer bases.
"The beauty is that with brands such as Wal-Mart on the organic cotton bandwagon, and the number of farmers that are switching to organic farming, the cost of organic is going to continue to become more and more affordable, allowing this growth to continue in the current economy," she said.
The Organic Exchange found in its research that most brands and retailers selling organic cotton products remain committed to their sustainability plans and upbeat about market growth. They reported they have plans to expand their product lines 24 percent and 33 percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively. It estimates that the segment will be a $4 billion market in 2009 and a $5.3 billion market in 2010.
Additionally, the organization's "Organic Cotton Farm and Fiber Report 2008" reported that the number of organic cotton farmers grew worldwide by 152 percent in 2007/2008. Organic cotton production hit 145,872 metric tons, which is equivalent to 668,581 bales (a bale is 480 pounds). It was grown on 400,000 acres in 22 countries worldwide.
During 2008, the report noted, certified organic cotton fiber supplies grew by 95 percent, significantly higher than annual growth rates of 45 percent in 2006 and 53 percent in 2007.
"Farmers who planted on speculation or expanded without market partners may have shifted the market into a state of oversupply in 2009," said LaRhea Pepper, Organic Exchange's senior director, in a statement, noting that the non-profit strongly discourages farmers from taking this kind of risk.
"Brands may want to explore opportunities for expanding their organic programs with their business partners, as for the first time in many years, supplies of organic fiber, yarns, and fabrics are more available than in previous years," Pepper added.
Founded in 2002, Organic Exchange (www.organicexchange.org) facilitates expansion of the organic cotton fiber supply by working with the entire chain of supply, from farmers to retailers, to help develop organic cotton programs.--Wendy Geister
Surge in Campground Reservations Creates Opportunities for Outdoor Businesses
More evidence is emerging that Americans are turning to the outdoors for a respite from tough economic times, or perhaps because of them. Advance reservations for nearly 89,000 campgrounds on federal lands were up 26.1% for the period of January 1 to March 22 compared to the same period last year, according to data from the National Recreation Reservation Service. The overwhelming majority of the reservations came in online via reserveamerica.com.
The spike in reservations prompted a report by CNN, entitled “In a Slump, Camping Comes Into Vogue.” The article reports that reservations to state parks in California are also trending up. Of course it’s still too early to say whether media reports will translate into stronger sales of camping gear this spring.
Regardless, marketing gurus are urging outdoor retailers to start promoting close-to-home adventures now to both core outdoor enthusiasts and their more casual shoppers while both groups are planning their summer vacations.
A survey of Leisure Trends Group’s Most Active American Panel conducted between February 15 and March 10 found that 78% plan their summer vacation one or more months ahead of time. More than 50% plan three to five months out, in large part because they are hunting for deals. Among this group, 11 percent said they are considering doing more camping. Skiers, by contrast, often booked their trips this winter only one or two weeks out in hopes of getting the best airline and resort promotions as the economy weakened.
“If I was a specialty retailer, I would institute a program that would show people what they could do within 50 miles,” said Leisure Trend Group’s Julia Day Clark. “People are thinking about this. They are planning and what if retailers could show them something really cool?”
With that in mind, here are some ideas for luring folks into your store:
Blog: If you don’t already have one, you could start by publishing the top 25 local adventures for the spring and summer on your web site. If you have time, post directions, advisories, photos, maps, suggested provisions, GPS coordinates, etc. For an example, check out Dave Baker’s blog for Tucson’s Summit Hut.
Build community: Offer to post customers’ own photos and observations of their experiences on the blog. Contributors can become eligible for a $150 gift card drawing.
Point of sale: Print your top 25 list with a link to your website on fliers for your store. Laminate a few for your sales staff, who can use them on the floor to show customers just how easy it is to hike, climb, cycle, paddle and camp nearby.
Map room: Set up a trip planning area in your store where customers can browse maps, books and maybe even cruise the Internet. Blow up a map of the area and stick push pins into the sites on your list.
Newsletter: E-mail your top 25 list out to your customers as soon as possible with a link to your site. Or break up the list for a series of newsletters.
Events: Feel free to fold your store events into the list. Outside Hilton Head will celebrate “30 Weekends of Adventure” as part of its 30-year anniversary starting this summer. The events will include demo days, speakers and other community events. It’s all part of the outfitter and retailer’s expanded marketing this year despite a double-digit drop in sales. “I think you’ve got to really work harder for customers, but I also think there is a real opportunity for when things get better to get more market share,” said owner Mike Overton
The spike in reservations prompted a report by CNN, entitled “In a Slump, Camping Comes Into Vogue.” The article reports that reservations to state parks in California are also trending up. Of course it’s still too early to say whether media reports will translate into stronger sales of camping gear this spring.
Regardless, marketing gurus are urging outdoor retailers to start promoting close-to-home adventures now to both core outdoor enthusiasts and their more casual shoppers while both groups are planning their summer vacations.
A survey of Leisure Trends Group’s Most Active American Panel conducted between February 15 and March 10 found that 78% plan their summer vacation one or more months ahead of time. More than 50% plan three to five months out, in large part because they are hunting for deals. Among this group, 11 percent said they are considering doing more camping. Skiers, by contrast, often booked their trips this winter only one or two weeks out in hopes of getting the best airline and resort promotions as the economy weakened.
“If I was a specialty retailer, I would institute a program that would show people what they could do within 50 miles,” said Leisure Trend Group’s Julia Day Clark. “People are thinking about this. They are planning and what if retailers could show them something really cool?”
With that in mind, here are some ideas for luring folks into your store:
Blog: If you don’t already have one, you could start by publishing the top 25 local adventures for the spring and summer on your web site. If you have time, post directions, advisories, photos, maps, suggested provisions, GPS coordinates, etc. For an example, check out Dave Baker’s blog for Tucson’s Summit Hut.
Build community: Offer to post customers’ own photos and observations of their experiences on the blog. Contributors can become eligible for a $150 gift card drawing.
Point of sale: Print your top 25 list with a link to your website on fliers for your store. Laminate a few for your sales staff, who can use them on the floor to show customers just how easy it is to hike, climb, cycle, paddle and camp nearby.
Map room: Set up a trip planning area in your store where customers can browse maps, books and maybe even cruise the Internet. Blow up a map of the area and stick push pins into the sites on your list.
Newsletter: E-mail your top 25 list out to your customers as soon as possible with a link to your site. Or break up the list for a series of newsletters.
Events: Feel free to fold your store events into the list. Outside Hilton Head will celebrate “30 Weekends of Adventure” as part of its 30-year anniversary starting this summer. The events will include demo days, speakers and other community events. It’s all part of the outfitter and retailer’s expanded marketing this year despite a double-digit drop in sales. “I think you’ve got to really work harder for customers, but I also think there is a real opportunity for when things get better to get more market share,” said owner Mike Overton
Q&A: Retail Consultant Dan Mann Discusses
Retailers say forecasting sales has become much more difficult in today’s uncertain economy, a condition that might not improve for many months. “Our crystal ball is shattered,” said one merchandizing executive. With that in mind, OIA WebNews asked The Mann Group’s Dan Mann to talk about what retailers can do to adjust to the uncertainty. Mann will deliver the last of a Webinar series on Financial Management for retailers this afternoon. Excerpts from the discussion are below:
Q: What is your outlook for specialty outdoor retail sales? A: There are some encouraging signs, but I don't think we in this industry can tell how good or bad it's going to be, because we are not in our season yet. You operate from the best information you have and I would hope the “staycation” trend will come. But right now, frankly, it's too hard to know and hope is not a strategy. If the crystal ball is broken we will have to do a little more work in order to gather the information we need to make buying decisions.
Q: What can retailers do if their forecasts are way off? A: Whether in good times or bad, they need to operate with some discipline. When times are tough like this, discipline is especially important for the retailer, who tends to go on fear or on gut. You have those who say, “We have open-to-buy money, but I don't care what the plan says – which is buy more – I'm not going to buy because of the economy.” Discipline requires a conversation between the open-to-buy team, who is hopefully working from some open-to-buy spreadsheet, and the sales floor. You can't do this from the back room anymore. You need to go to the floor and see where you need to fill in. Are your inventory numbers correct? Look at your displays. See what's moving rapidly and what items are not. Don't just retreat and say, “We are not buying anything now.” Combine your gut and the sales floor versus what your open-to-buy sheet is telling you to buy. The point is we can’t just buy from a spreadsheet anymore. We have to have a more thorough open dialog between the sales floor and the buying office – even if that’s the same person!
Q: What else is required? A: Diligence. Checking and double-checking the spreadsheet versus the shelves. You need to ask what does my display tell me is selling? If it’s rainwear and my spreadsheet tells me I have plenty, but it's raining this week and I have not sold a single one, then I need to go check the sales floor and back room and find out where it is.
Q: What key ratios should they focus on? A: Inventory-to-sale ratio. You have to ask yourself, if I sell at the current rate of turn, when will I be out of product. You will see in this economy some of these numbers will slow down and some will speed up. You may want to look at that daily and against what you have on hand. My concern is that so many people are not operating on clean data. A high percentage of the retailers we work with don't do an annual inventory. Just because my point-of-sale tells me I have it, does not mean that I do.
Q: What is your outlook for specialty outdoor retail sales? A: There are some encouraging signs, but I don't think we in this industry can tell how good or bad it's going to be, because we are not in our season yet. You operate from the best information you have and I would hope the “staycation” trend will come. But right now, frankly, it's too hard to know and hope is not a strategy. If the crystal ball is broken we will have to do a little more work in order to gather the information we need to make buying decisions.
Q: What can retailers do if their forecasts are way off? A: Whether in good times or bad, they need to operate with some discipline. When times are tough like this, discipline is especially important for the retailer, who tends to go on fear or on gut. You have those who say, “We have open-to-buy money, but I don't care what the plan says – which is buy more – I'm not going to buy because of the economy.” Discipline requires a conversation between the open-to-buy team, who is hopefully working from some open-to-buy spreadsheet, and the sales floor. You can't do this from the back room anymore. You need to go to the floor and see where you need to fill in. Are your inventory numbers correct? Look at your displays. See what's moving rapidly and what items are not. Don't just retreat and say, “We are not buying anything now.” Combine your gut and the sales floor versus what your open-to-buy sheet is telling you to buy. The point is we can’t just buy from a spreadsheet anymore. We have to have a more thorough open dialog between the sales floor and the buying office – even if that’s the same person!
Q: What else is required? A: Diligence. Checking and double-checking the spreadsheet versus the shelves. You need to ask what does my display tell me is selling? If it’s rainwear and my spreadsheet tells me I have plenty, but it's raining this week and I have not sold a single one, then I need to go check the sales floor and back room and find out where it is.
Q: What key ratios should they focus on? A: Inventory-to-sale ratio. You have to ask yourself, if I sell at the current rate of turn, when will I be out of product. You will see in this economy some of these numbers will slow down and some will speed up. You may want to look at that daily and against what you have on hand. My concern is that so many people are not operating on clean data. A high percentage of the retailers we work with don't do an annual inventory. Just because my point-of-sale tells me I have it, does not mean that I do.
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