Bush just gave the okey-dokey to drilling not far from hear.
Do you think this could be a sign of the future?
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Signs of the Future? Zion Canyon During the Controlled Burn in November 2008
Bush just gave the okey-dokey to drilling not far from hear.
Do you think this could be a sign of the future?
Gear and equipment for being active may still be bright(er) spot in today’s economy
It used to be said that when the economy got ugly, more people went fishing.
Fast-forward to today’s culture and you might be able to say, instead, when the economy gets sluggish, more people try to get active.
By almost all measures, the U.S. economy is now in a recession. Real estate, banking, and insurance sectors have been badly weakened and are dragging down overall economic activity. Most of the nation’s top retailers reported double-digit declines in October sales in early November, following a weak September and forecasting what could be a grim holiday shopping season.
But consumers, who have sharply cut spending, are still investing some of their discretionary dollars in physical activity of some sort.
“People are spending money,” said John Wilson, general manager of CW-X, which produces active wear such as tights for running, from the bustling New York City Marathon expo the first weekend of November. “When it comes to your sport, you invest. People still want to get out and do their thing.”
While the weakened economy finds consumers hunkering down, delaying big purchases and tightening their belts, the outlook may not be quite as bleak for outdoor sports, fitness retail or health club industries. Citing historical data, economists say the categories may weather the economic downturn.
Get active, stay active
Despite the gloom and doom, sports enthusiasts will continue to support their activities. Cash-strapped consumers may fork over cash for accessories, but forgo big ticket items – or chose ones that cost slightly less. Skiers will still ski, though they may ride chairlifts locally instead of heading off to a destination resort. Health clubs owners may also still people coming in the door.
Of course, retail economists and trend analysts don’t agree on everything: Some simply say retail sports categories will lose less this time around than other sectors. Others are doing their best to forecast, knowing this is a different situation than in the past. Basically, data from previous recessions indicate that sporting goods fare well, said Julia Day, director of sales and marketing for Boulder, Colo.-based Leisure Trends Group.
“People who are active and passionate about their sports won’t stop doing their sports in a downturn,” Day said.
One likely change will come in accessories, she said. They may be favored over big ticket items. If the weather is colder, hats and socks might sell well. Camping accessories such as lights, cooking products and headlamps might move off the store shelves faster than tents and sleeping bags. In the economic slump in 2001, sales of tents, bags and high-end backpacks headed south, Day said. Small fitness items may be the chosen purchase over large equipment.
“Consumers will participate, but less frequently,” she reassured. “They will change habits.”
Day said her market research firm tracks heart rate monitors and GPS devices as both accessories and technology products -- and buyers dig the gadgets. “If it’s new and hot, it sells,” Day said. “If it’s tech and consumers want it, it sells.”
Everything in outdoor retail sales, which tends to be resistant as a category, soared through August, but things changes in September, Day said. However, helping to offset the economic cooling is a trend toward healthier lifestyles.
“One thing we know is if you are active and healthy, you’re going to be happier,” she said. Leisure Trends monitors what if calls a “happiness track.” On it, they find that people who are active and participate in outdoor activities are happiest.
In another recently quarterly report, for example, Target Corp. noted that despite sales declines, fitness and yoga apparel remained strong.
Quality counts
Because cash is tighter, consumers may also be looking for higher quality goods. They want goods that last longer, Day said. Consumers may be leaning toward less of a throw-away economy.
“Consumers might be willing to pay more for quality but buying less,” she said.
One study Leisure Trends conducted on consumer buying intent shows that nearly 70 percent of their most active buyers will be making adjustments in their sports equipment and apparel purchases this year. And quality drove purchase decisions. “Over 92 percent of respondents agree that paying more for a sports product with the expectation it will last longer is their preferable buying strategy.”
Another key amid the gloom: 44 percent claimed they will take part in their favorite activities this fall and winter. And 27 percent they will participate more.
“Sales will go down, but we know that people who are enthusiasts will continue to do their activities. Skiers, for example, will still ski in a down economy, but they’ll ski more locally,” Day said.
Tom Doyle, vice president of information and research at the National Sporting Goods Association (NSGA), supported the view that there won’t be a huge drop in sporting goods equipment sales. Doyle has charted consumer purchases of equipment and footwear over the last 20 years. His research indicates fairly healthy sales even during slumps.
“My general observation is that consumer purchases of sporting goods flatten or decline slightly, less than 2 percent, in recessionary times,” Doyle said.
“A decline is likely to come in units, but will likely be offset to some degree by higher prices. I would expect to see any declines to be in the purchase of high-ticket items over the next several quarters.”
Doyle predicted the current economic crunch will create “a slackening, but it isn’t a huge disaster” for retailers.
He noted that treadmill sales did not drop off in 2001, but some other big ticket items such as backpacks and sleeping bags did, and they did not bounce back until 2004.
“It takes awhile for consumers to regain confidence,” after a recession, he said.
Maybe it’s the stress induced by job market conditions or plummeting stocks, but apparently consumers still find their way to health clubs.
Club membership leveling off
Health club memberships nationwide have leveled off since 2004 – the first year without a jump in several -- but haven’t fallen, according the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association (IHRSA). Total health club memberships at the close of 2007 numbered 41.5 million, IHRSA said. That is statistically about the same as the 2004 number of 41.3 million.
Taking a long-term view, the health club industry expects strong 2008 performance despite the economic picture, said IHRSA spokesman Rosemary Lavery. The industry has seen 41 percent growth in total number of members since 1998, she said.
“While the economy has been enduring some difficulty,” Lavery said in an email, “the health club industry looks to the following positives for growth: the increase in industry revenue numbers on the non-dues services, the importance of exercise as overweight and obesity rates continue to rise, and the correlation between chronic disease and health care costs.”
Several factors can affect club membership levels, and there are indications the fitness movement remains strong. Major marathons continue to sell out and new runs are added every year. Anecdotally, one vendor at the recent New York City marathon said running enthusiasts were “crazy” there, and that “people are spending money. People still want to get out and do their thing,” he said.
Running specialty store franchiser Fleet Feet Inc., based in Carrboro, N.C., recently logged its best quarter in the company’s 32-year history. Retail sales shot up to $24.8 million, up 16.5 over third quarter 2007. Year-to-date sales were up 17.8 percent through September 2008.
That kind of business performance wouldn’t surprise market researchers at the Leisure Trends Group.
“During a downturn, people will still go for a hike. Running and trail running also does well,” said the firm’s Day. “All it takes is a good pair of shoes.”
--Stuart Glascock
Fast-forward to today’s culture and you might be able to say, instead, when the economy gets sluggish, more people try to get active.
By almost all measures, the U.S. economy is now in a recession. Real estate, banking, and insurance sectors have been badly weakened and are dragging down overall economic activity. Most of the nation’s top retailers reported double-digit declines in October sales in early November, following a weak September and forecasting what could be a grim holiday shopping season.
But consumers, who have sharply cut spending, are still investing some of their discretionary dollars in physical activity of some sort.
“People are spending money,” said John Wilson, general manager of CW-X, which produces active wear such as tights for running, from the bustling New York City Marathon expo the first weekend of November. “When it comes to your sport, you invest. People still want to get out and do their thing.”
While the weakened economy finds consumers hunkering down, delaying big purchases and tightening their belts, the outlook may not be quite as bleak for outdoor sports, fitness retail or health club industries. Citing historical data, economists say the categories may weather the economic downturn.
Get active, stay active
Despite the gloom and doom, sports enthusiasts will continue to support their activities. Cash-strapped consumers may fork over cash for accessories, but forgo big ticket items – or chose ones that cost slightly less. Skiers will still ski, though they may ride chairlifts locally instead of heading off to a destination resort. Health clubs owners may also still people coming in the door.
Of course, retail economists and trend analysts don’t agree on everything: Some simply say retail sports categories will lose less this time around than other sectors. Others are doing their best to forecast, knowing this is a different situation than in the past. Basically, data from previous recessions indicate that sporting goods fare well, said Julia Day, director of sales and marketing for Boulder, Colo.-based Leisure Trends Group.
“People who are active and passionate about their sports won’t stop doing their sports in a downturn,” Day said.
One likely change will come in accessories, she said. They may be favored over big ticket items. If the weather is colder, hats and socks might sell well. Camping accessories such as lights, cooking products and headlamps might move off the store shelves faster than tents and sleeping bags. In the economic slump in 2001, sales of tents, bags and high-end backpacks headed south, Day said. Small fitness items may be the chosen purchase over large equipment.
“Consumers will participate, but less frequently,” she reassured. “They will change habits.”
Day said her market research firm tracks heart rate monitors and GPS devices as both accessories and technology products -- and buyers dig the gadgets. “If it’s new and hot, it sells,” Day said. “If it’s tech and consumers want it, it sells.”
Everything in outdoor retail sales, which tends to be resistant as a category, soared through August, but things changes in September, Day said. However, helping to offset the economic cooling is a trend toward healthier lifestyles.
“One thing we know is if you are active and healthy, you’re going to be happier,” she said. Leisure Trends monitors what if calls a “happiness track.” On it, they find that people who are active and participate in outdoor activities are happiest.
In another recently quarterly report, for example, Target Corp. noted that despite sales declines, fitness and yoga apparel remained strong.
Quality counts
Because cash is tighter, consumers may also be looking for higher quality goods. They want goods that last longer, Day said. Consumers may be leaning toward less of a throw-away economy.
“Consumers might be willing to pay more for quality but buying less,” she said.
One study Leisure Trends conducted on consumer buying intent shows that nearly 70 percent of their most active buyers will be making adjustments in their sports equipment and apparel purchases this year. And quality drove purchase decisions. “Over 92 percent of respondents agree that paying more for a sports product with the expectation it will last longer is their preferable buying strategy.”
Another key amid the gloom: 44 percent claimed they will take part in their favorite activities this fall and winter. And 27 percent they will participate more.
“Sales will go down, but we know that people who are enthusiasts will continue to do their activities. Skiers, for example, will still ski in a down economy, but they’ll ski more locally,” Day said.
Tom Doyle, vice president of information and research at the National Sporting Goods Association (NSGA), supported the view that there won’t be a huge drop in sporting goods equipment sales. Doyle has charted consumer purchases of equipment and footwear over the last 20 years. His research indicates fairly healthy sales even during slumps.
“My general observation is that consumer purchases of sporting goods flatten or decline slightly, less than 2 percent, in recessionary times,” Doyle said.
“A decline is likely to come in units, but will likely be offset to some degree by higher prices. I would expect to see any declines to be in the purchase of high-ticket items over the next several quarters.”
Doyle predicted the current economic crunch will create “a slackening, but it isn’t a huge disaster” for retailers.
He noted that treadmill sales did not drop off in 2001, but some other big ticket items such as backpacks and sleeping bags did, and they did not bounce back until 2004.
“It takes awhile for consumers to regain confidence,” after a recession, he said.
Maybe it’s the stress induced by job market conditions or plummeting stocks, but apparently consumers still find their way to health clubs.
Club membership leveling off
Health club memberships nationwide have leveled off since 2004 – the first year without a jump in several -- but haven’t fallen, according the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association (IHRSA). Total health club memberships at the close of 2007 numbered 41.5 million, IHRSA said. That is statistically about the same as the 2004 number of 41.3 million.
Taking a long-term view, the health club industry expects strong 2008 performance despite the economic picture, said IHRSA spokesman Rosemary Lavery. The industry has seen 41 percent growth in total number of members since 1998, she said.
“While the economy has been enduring some difficulty,” Lavery said in an email, “the health club industry looks to the following positives for growth: the increase in industry revenue numbers on the non-dues services, the importance of exercise as overweight and obesity rates continue to rise, and the correlation between chronic disease and health care costs.”
Several factors can affect club membership levels, and there are indications the fitness movement remains strong. Major marathons continue to sell out and new runs are added every year. Anecdotally, one vendor at the recent New York City marathon said running enthusiasts were “crazy” there, and that “people are spending money. People still want to get out and do their thing,” he said.
Running specialty store franchiser Fleet Feet Inc., based in Carrboro, N.C., recently logged its best quarter in the company’s 32-year history. Retail sales shot up to $24.8 million, up 16.5 over third quarter 2007. Year-to-date sales were up 17.8 percent through September 2008.
That kind of business performance wouldn’t surprise market researchers at the Leisure Trends Group.
“During a downturn, people will still go for a hike. Running and trail running also does well,” said the firm’s Day. “All it takes is a good pair of shoes.”
--Stuart Glascock
LIned Up at Alta For Another Record Breaking Year?
IT WILL HAVE TO BE ANOTHER GREAT SNOW YEAR
AND IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF TRAVELERS IN A TOUGH
ECONOMY TO CREATE LINES LIKE THIS - GOOD TO BE A
LOCAL!!
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Recycling at the Ski Swap
Nov 7-9, Basin Recreation Center - Park City, UT
Recycling at its best. Very old, old, somewhat new, brand new! This was the range of goods you could find at the 38th Annual Park City Ski Swap.
I am sure with this economy their will be newer and newer "used" equipment that people are looking to sell and get some greenbacks for.
Talk about the greenback - a new breakout from the consolidation.
Check out Into the Markets for more education on the financial markets!
Recycling at its best. Very old, old, somewhat new, brand new! This was the range of goods you could find at the 38th Annual Park City Ski Swap.
I am sure with this economy their will be newer and newer "used" equipment that people are looking to sell and get some greenbacks for.
Talk about the greenback - a new breakout from the consolidation.
Check out Into the Markets for more education on the financial markets!
Green Word of the Day
Sustainable Development
Economic, social and environmental development that is harmonized for the good of all interests.
Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs - from the Brundtland Report "Our Common Future" - The United Nations uses this definition.
Is the concept of growth and depleting non-renewable resources mutually exclusive?
Be Environmentally Cool
Head Local
Green Local
Economic, social and environmental development that is harmonized for the good of all interests.
Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs - from the Brundtland Report "Our Common Future" - The United Nations uses this definition.
Is the concept of growth and depleting non-renewable resources mutually exclusive?
Be Environmentally Cool
Head Local
Green Local
Consumer Reports: 76 Percent of Consumers Plan to Cut Back on Holiday Spending
YONKERS, N.Y. -- 'Tis the season to tighten the belt on holiday spending for many Americans this year.
Over three-quarters (76%) of Americans plan to cut back on spending on traditional holiday expenses such as gifts, travel, entertaining, decorations, charitable giving, holiday cards, and tipping, according to a new Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll.
Full results of the poll are available at www.ConsumerReports.org.
Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll also found that some consumers will be starting the holiday season with leftover holiday debt. Six percent of Americans -- some 12 million consumers -- are still carrying debt from last winter's holiday season.
Among the holiday spending cutbacks, 59 percent said they will be giving fewer gifts, and nearly half (49%) will be cutting their travel plans.Who is most likely to be left off the holiday gift list?
Among consumers scaling back on gifts, most (84%) were willing to cut back on buying for themselves. But the family pooch may still get a treat or two. Only 23 percent of respondents plan to cut back on gifts for their pets this season -- far fewer than those willing to cut back on buying for friends and families (40%), service providers (30%) or co-workers (29%).
Release of Consumer Reports' Holiday Shopping Poll coincides with the launch of the "Tightwad Tod" Blog on www.ConsumerReports.org/TightwadTod.
For shoppers looking for great ways to save this holiday season, Consumer Reports' Tightwad, Tod Marks is the guy. Every day, Tod will blog on the news that affects the pocketbook, great buys for the holidays and those offers that sound too good to be true."Being a tightwad doesn't mean you're a cheapskate -- it just means you spend your money wisely, and have more to spend on the things you really want this holiday season," said Tod Marks, senior project editor, Consumer Reports and "Tightwad Tod" blogger.
The Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll also finds:Shopping Season 2008: Off to a slow start-- Similar to the 2007 holiday shopping season, 2008 is expected to getoff to a slow start.
Only 29 percent of consumers have started theirshopping. Only about half (45%) of consumers anticipate they will bedone buying gifts by the second week in December. Approximately 24percent say they will push their holiday shopping right up to December24th. About 5 percent of consumers don't plan to complete theirshopping until after the holidays.
No humbug for the holidays: Consumers remain optimistic-- Despite all the budgeting and cutbacks, consumers remain optimisticthat their holiday will be as enjoyable as in year's past. Themajority (88%) expect their holidays to be at least as happy as lastyear, including 28 percentage points who expect to be even happierthan last year.
Making a list and checking it twice: Holiday Budgets-- If you want to control your spending over the holidays, considermaking a budget before you begin to shop. You won't be alone; thisyear 59 percent of consumers plan to make a budget -- an increase ofmore than 17 percent from the year before.-- Making a budget is the easy part, sticking to it proves harder formany shoppers. Of the 39 percent of consumers who made a budget lastyear, only 45 percent stayed on it while, nearly as many (44%) wentover budget last year. Only about 3 percent went way over budget.--
This holiday season may see an increase in the usage of cash.Twenty-one percent plan to use cash moreover half plan to rely less oncredit cards (51%). The change is especially evident in young peopleages 18-34 -- who have tended to favor credit in the past.Is it always better to give than receive? Not if it's socks!
-- The number one gift consumers are planning to buy for the 2008 holidayseason is clothing (69%). But, that was the category of gifts receivedin 2007 that triggered the most disappointment among recipients (39%).Forty-seven percent of men said they were disappointed to receivevarious types of clothing for the 2006 holidays including themost-hated socks.
-- The number two gift consumers are planning to give for 2008 is giftcards (66%), followed by toys (62%), cash (61%), electronics (47%),jewelry (40%), pet toys (31%) and small appliances (24%). Toys seem tobe making a comeback this season after last years recalls when only49% of consumers had planned to purchase toys.
-- Consumers planning to give electronic gifts on a whole have declinedfrom last season from 53 to 47 percent this year, despite the factthat it remains the most wanted gift for both men (26%) and women(14%). Women also were equally interested in gift cards (14%),followed by jewelry (13%), and money (12%).
-- Gift-givers may still want to opt for electronic gifts; ConsumerReports poll found that it's the gift people would most like toreceive (20%). Mp3 players or iPods (18%) remain strong at the top ofthe most wanted electronics, and video games, which fell back lastseason, are back on top (18%).
-- Among those who plan to give money or cash as a gift this year, nearlyone-quarter (23%) plan to give it less frequently than they did lastyear.-- Does that gift look familiar? Re-gifting is on the rise. Nearlyone-third of respondents (31%) admitted to re-gifting a present lastyear. This is up from 25 percent in 2006. The most likely suspectsare still women (38 %). Only 24% of men admitted to ever re-gifting,which is about the same as last year.The gift that keeps on taking: Gift Cards
-- Gift cards continue to be a popular choice among shoppers, 66 percentof respondents plan on buying gift cards, up from 62 percent in 2007.Gift cards are second only to clothing (69%) for the 2008 holidayseason.-- For the 2007 holidays, 62 percent of respondents received a gift card,which is up 6 percentage points from the previous year. Nearly a yearlater, 25 percent of the gift card recipients have not used one ormore of these cards. Among consumers with unredeemed cards from lastseason, 57% have two or more.
-- The gift card is a gift that keeps on taking 58 percent of consumersspend more than the amount of the card when they go to redeem thegift.-- Time continues to be the most common reason gift cards have not beenredeemed. Well over half (54%) of consumers indicate not having thetime was the reason for unused cards. This was followed by they forgotabout it (38%) and can't find anything they want (35%).
Over three-quarters (76%) of Americans plan to cut back on spending on traditional holiday expenses such as gifts, travel, entertaining, decorations, charitable giving, holiday cards, and tipping, according to a new Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll.
Full results of the poll are available at www.ConsumerReports.org.
Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll also found that some consumers will be starting the holiday season with leftover holiday debt. Six percent of Americans -- some 12 million consumers -- are still carrying debt from last winter's holiday season.
Among the holiday spending cutbacks, 59 percent said they will be giving fewer gifts, and nearly half (49%) will be cutting their travel plans.Who is most likely to be left off the holiday gift list?
Among consumers scaling back on gifts, most (84%) were willing to cut back on buying for themselves. But the family pooch may still get a treat or two. Only 23 percent of respondents plan to cut back on gifts for their pets this season -- far fewer than those willing to cut back on buying for friends and families (40%), service providers (30%) or co-workers (29%).
Release of Consumer Reports' Holiday Shopping Poll coincides with the launch of the "Tightwad Tod" Blog on www.ConsumerReports.org/TightwadTod.
For shoppers looking for great ways to save this holiday season, Consumer Reports' Tightwad, Tod Marks is the guy. Every day, Tod will blog on the news that affects the pocketbook, great buys for the holidays and those offers that sound too good to be true."Being a tightwad doesn't mean you're a cheapskate -- it just means you spend your money wisely, and have more to spend on the things you really want this holiday season," said Tod Marks, senior project editor, Consumer Reports and "Tightwad Tod" blogger.
The Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll also finds:Shopping Season 2008: Off to a slow start-- Similar to the 2007 holiday shopping season, 2008 is expected to getoff to a slow start.
Only 29 percent of consumers have started theirshopping. Only about half (45%) of consumers anticipate they will bedone buying gifts by the second week in December. Approximately 24percent say they will push their holiday shopping right up to December24th. About 5 percent of consumers don't plan to complete theirshopping until after the holidays.
No humbug for the holidays: Consumers remain optimistic-- Despite all the budgeting and cutbacks, consumers remain optimisticthat their holiday will be as enjoyable as in year's past. Themajority (88%) expect their holidays to be at least as happy as lastyear, including 28 percentage points who expect to be even happierthan last year.
Making a list and checking it twice: Holiday Budgets-- If you want to control your spending over the holidays, considermaking a budget before you begin to shop. You won't be alone; thisyear 59 percent of consumers plan to make a budget -- an increase ofmore than 17 percent from the year before.-- Making a budget is the easy part, sticking to it proves harder formany shoppers. Of the 39 percent of consumers who made a budget lastyear, only 45 percent stayed on it while, nearly as many (44%) wentover budget last year. Only about 3 percent went way over budget.--
This holiday season may see an increase in the usage of cash.Twenty-one percent plan to use cash moreover half plan to rely less oncredit cards (51%). The change is especially evident in young peopleages 18-34 -- who have tended to favor credit in the past.Is it always better to give than receive? Not if it's socks!
-- The number one gift consumers are planning to buy for the 2008 holidayseason is clothing (69%). But, that was the category of gifts receivedin 2007 that triggered the most disappointment among recipients (39%).Forty-seven percent of men said they were disappointed to receivevarious types of clothing for the 2006 holidays including themost-hated socks.
-- The number two gift consumers are planning to give for 2008 is giftcards (66%), followed by toys (62%), cash (61%), electronics (47%),jewelry (40%), pet toys (31%) and small appliances (24%). Toys seem tobe making a comeback this season after last years recalls when only49% of consumers had planned to purchase toys.
-- Consumers planning to give electronic gifts on a whole have declinedfrom last season from 53 to 47 percent this year, despite the factthat it remains the most wanted gift for both men (26%) and women(14%). Women also were equally interested in gift cards (14%),followed by jewelry (13%), and money (12%).
-- Gift-givers may still want to opt for electronic gifts; ConsumerReports poll found that it's the gift people would most like toreceive (20%). Mp3 players or iPods (18%) remain strong at the top ofthe most wanted electronics, and video games, which fell back lastseason, are back on top (18%).
-- Among those who plan to give money or cash as a gift this year, nearlyone-quarter (23%) plan to give it less frequently than they did lastyear.-- Does that gift look familiar? Re-gifting is on the rise. Nearlyone-third of respondents (31%) admitted to re-gifting a present lastyear. This is up from 25 percent in 2006. The most likely suspectsare still women (38 %). Only 24% of men admitted to ever re-gifting,which is about the same as last year.The gift that keeps on taking: Gift Cards
-- Gift cards continue to be a popular choice among shoppers, 66 percentof respondents plan on buying gift cards, up from 62 percent in 2007.Gift cards are second only to clothing (69%) for the 2008 holidayseason.-- For the 2007 holidays, 62 percent of respondents received a gift card,which is up 6 percentage points from the previous year. Nearly a yearlater, 25 percent of the gift card recipients have not used one ormore of these cards. Among consumers with unredeemed cards from lastseason, 57% have two or more.
-- The gift card is a gift that keeps on taking 58 percent of consumersspend more than the amount of the card when they go to redeem thegift.-- Time continues to be the most common reason gift cards have not beenredeemed. Well over half (54%) of consumers indicate not having thetime was the reason for unused cards. This was followed by they forgotabout it (38%) and can't find anything they want (35%).
September Outdoor Sales Mixed Bag, Buoyed by Accessory and Internet
Overall September numbers reported in the most recent edition of The Outdoor Topline Report, produced for Outdoor Industry Association (OIA) by the Leisure Trends Group are a mixed bag as September saw one of the worst economic crisis in recent history affect all types of consumer spending.
The Commerce Department reported overall personal spending dropped .3 percent in September, the largest drop since June 2004.According to The Outdoor Topline Report, core outdoor retailers saw sales in all three channels (specialty, chain, and internet)* total $351M this month, 2% above September 2007. Unit sales for all three channels increased 5% for the same period.
But specialty stores posted a decline for the first time since October 2007.Channel & Category BreakdownBreaking down the September sales by store channel, chain store sales totaled $174M, gaining 6% in units and 4% in dollars compared to the same month last year.
Independent outdoor specialty stores sold $111M, a 5% decline from September 2007. Unit sales also dropped 5% for the period. Outdoor internet merchants were not slowed down by the economy at all.
In September, the entire outdoor internet channel brought in $67M, increasing sales by 20% in units and 11% in dollars compared to September 2007. Similar to findings in other industries, core outdoor shoppers seemed reluctant to buy big-ticket items such as tents, sleeping bags, packs, instruments and sport racks.
However, lower-priced camping equipment accessory categories gained 15% in units and 8% in dollars helping buoy overall outdoor sales.Apparel and footwear were mixed, with outwear and sportswear remaining flat, boots and shoes made modest gains and sandals declined.Following the accessory trend, apparel and footwear accessories saw healthy increases compared to last September.
Look for accessories and small-ticket items to gain traction in a soft economy. PaddlesportsAll paddle product sales from all three channels (specialty, chain, internet) totaled $26M in September, down 13% from September 2007. Unit sales decreased 8% for the same period. Paddle specialty stores had sales of $20M this month, suffering a 17% decline in units and a 15% decline in dollars. Total chain paddlesport sales reached $4.5M, down 3% from September 2007.
The internet channel saw September sales increase 14% in units but decrease 7% in dollars with $1.8M in total sales.
Year-to-date, all paddlesport sales from all three channels totaled $327M, down 1% from the same period in 2007.Big-ticket paddlesport items saw the largest declines in September. Boats and paddles lost sales in each of the three distribution channels, while accessories and apparel saw sales increase in chain and internet stores.
August & September Sales CombinedSeptember sales numbers alone miss a key factor in sales growth. A large portion of revenue in August and September occurs during the traditional Labor Day Sales. In 2007, Labor Day Sales were mostly counted in September, while this year’s sales gave August the boost because of the calendar.
Looking at August and September together, all products in all stores grew 8% in units and 7% in dollars. Equipment increased 6% and 5% in units and dollars, respectively. Equipment accessories grew 16% and 13% respectively and apparel grew 5% and 4%. Footwear dropped 10% in units but grew 5% in dollars
The Commerce Department reported overall personal spending dropped .3 percent in September, the largest drop since June 2004.According to The Outdoor Topline Report, core outdoor retailers saw sales in all three channels (specialty, chain, and internet)* total $351M this month, 2% above September 2007. Unit sales for all three channels increased 5% for the same period.
But specialty stores posted a decline for the first time since October 2007.Channel & Category BreakdownBreaking down the September sales by store channel, chain store sales totaled $174M, gaining 6% in units and 4% in dollars compared to the same month last year.
Independent outdoor specialty stores sold $111M, a 5% decline from September 2007. Unit sales also dropped 5% for the period. Outdoor internet merchants were not slowed down by the economy at all.
In September, the entire outdoor internet channel brought in $67M, increasing sales by 20% in units and 11% in dollars compared to September 2007. Similar to findings in other industries, core outdoor shoppers seemed reluctant to buy big-ticket items such as tents, sleeping bags, packs, instruments and sport racks.
However, lower-priced camping equipment accessory categories gained 15% in units and 8% in dollars helping buoy overall outdoor sales.Apparel and footwear were mixed, with outwear and sportswear remaining flat, boots and shoes made modest gains and sandals declined.Following the accessory trend, apparel and footwear accessories saw healthy increases compared to last September.
Look for accessories and small-ticket items to gain traction in a soft economy. PaddlesportsAll paddle product sales from all three channels (specialty, chain, internet) totaled $26M in September, down 13% from September 2007. Unit sales decreased 8% for the same period. Paddle specialty stores had sales of $20M this month, suffering a 17% decline in units and a 15% decline in dollars. Total chain paddlesport sales reached $4.5M, down 3% from September 2007.
The internet channel saw September sales increase 14% in units but decrease 7% in dollars with $1.8M in total sales.
Year-to-date, all paddlesport sales from all three channels totaled $327M, down 1% from the same period in 2007.Big-ticket paddlesport items saw the largest declines in September. Boats and paddles lost sales in each of the three distribution channels, while accessories and apparel saw sales increase in chain and internet stores.
August & September Sales CombinedSeptember sales numbers alone miss a key factor in sales growth. A large portion of revenue in August and September occurs during the traditional Labor Day Sales. In 2007, Labor Day Sales were mostly counted in September, while this year’s sales gave August the boost because of the calendar.
Looking at August and September together, all products in all stores grew 8% in units and 7% in dollars. Equipment increased 6% and 5% in units and dollars, respectively. Equipment accessories grew 16% and 13% respectively and apparel grew 5% and 4%. Footwear dropped 10% in units but grew 5% in dollars
2008 Retail Container Traffic to be Lowest Since 2004
WASHINGTON – Cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports fell again in October, and 2008 is now expected to be the slowest year since 2004 as the downturn in the nation’s economy continues, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.Volume is projected to total 15.3 million Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units for the year, compared with 16.5 million TEU in 2007.
That would be a decline of 7.1 percent and the lowest total since 2004, when 14 million TEU moved through the ports. The estimate is down from the 15.43 million projected a month ago, which would have been a 6.5 percent decline from 2007 and the lowest number since 2005’s 15.4 million TEU.
One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.“Retail sales forecasts this year are the lowest they’ve been in more than half a decade, and the cargo volume we’re seeing reflects those numbers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“The balancing act between supply and demand is tougher than ever because retailers want to make sure they have enough merchandise on the shelves to satisfy customers and not be forced into unplanned markdowns to move excess inventory once the holidays are over.”
U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.33 million TEU in September, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was down 2.9 percent from August and 9.8 percent from September 2007. October was estimated at 1.36 million TEU, down 5.7 percent from a year ago.
If estimates hold true, October will have been the peak shipping month for 2008 but will have fallen significantly short of the 2007 peak of 1.48 million TEU set last September.November is forecast at 1.26 million TEU, down 8.7 percent, and December is forecast at 1.21 million TEU, down 5.5 percent.
January 2009 is forecast at 1.17 million TEU, down 5 percent, and February – traditionally the slowest month of the year – is forecast at 1.12 million TEU, down 8.3 percent. The first year-over-year increase in months is expected in March, which is forecast at 1.18 million TEU, a 2.3 percent increase from March 2008.
Meanwhile, Port Tracker’s congestion rating for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach – the nation’s two largest retail container ports – continues at medium because collection of fees for the new Clean Truck Program there begins this month.
“The October startup of the Clean Truck Program regulations did not cause the disruptions we had been concerned about, but collection of fees for the program begins this month and it is not clear that all trucks will be ready,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “
Despite that, weak import demand has reduced pressure for port truck drivers, so capacity should be adequate.”The remainder of the U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.
Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members.
That would be a decline of 7.1 percent and the lowest total since 2004, when 14 million TEU moved through the ports. The estimate is down from the 15.43 million projected a month ago, which would have been a 6.5 percent decline from 2007 and the lowest number since 2005’s 15.4 million TEU.
One TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.“Retail sales forecasts this year are the lowest they’ve been in more than half a decade, and the cargo volume we’re seeing reflects those numbers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“The balancing act between supply and demand is tougher than ever because retailers want to make sure they have enough merchandise on the shelves to satisfy customers and not be forced into unplanned markdowns to move excess inventory once the holidays are over.”
U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.33 million TEU in September, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was down 2.9 percent from August and 9.8 percent from September 2007. October was estimated at 1.36 million TEU, down 5.7 percent from a year ago.
If estimates hold true, October will have been the peak shipping month for 2008 but will have fallen significantly short of the 2007 peak of 1.48 million TEU set last September.November is forecast at 1.26 million TEU, down 8.7 percent, and December is forecast at 1.21 million TEU, down 5.5 percent.
January 2009 is forecast at 1.17 million TEU, down 5 percent, and February – traditionally the slowest month of the year – is forecast at 1.12 million TEU, down 8.3 percent. The first year-over-year increase in months is expected in March, which is forecast at 1.18 million TEU, a 2.3 percent increase from March 2008.
Meanwhile, Port Tracker’s congestion rating for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach – the nation’s two largest retail container ports – continues at medium because collection of fees for the new Clean Truck Program there begins this month.
“The October startup of the Clean Truck Program regulations did not cause the disruptions we had been concerned about, but collection of fees for the program begins this month and it is not clear that all trucks will be ready,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “
Despite that, weak import demand has reduced pressure for port truck drivers, so capacity should be adequate.”The remainder of the U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker – Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast – are rated “low” for congestion, the same as last month.
Port Tracker, which is produced by the economic research, forecasting and analysis firm IHS Global Insight for NRF, looks at inbound container volume, the availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion. The report is free to NRF retail members.
Managing your retail business for stability in a tumultuous economy
And the hits just keep on coming. Consumer Reports just released a report that finds 76 percent of consumers will be cutting back on their holiday spending (click here to read). Outdoor Industry Association reports outdoor retailer sales, long argued to be recession-proof, are now taking lumps, too (click here to read). And, the National Retail Federation issued a November report that showed cargo volume at major U.S. retail container ports fell again in October and hit their lowest levels since 2004 (click here to read).
In an email notice to his retail clients, Pruitt wrote, "Business may be down by 30 percent, but remember, 70 percent of customers are still shopping. Keep your focus on these customers." Which is very good advice, considering that Pruitt sees the economic downturn lasting well into 2009. "We actually started seeing a retail slowdown starting during the April/May period of 2007. Typically, these cycles last 18 to 20 months, which meant we were anticipating a rebound just in time for the holidays this year," Pruitt told us. "But five weeks ago, the dream of a holiday rebound was shattered with further financial unraveling that was unprecedented, meaning we are in a double dip -- back into another 18- to 20-month cycle of slowing retail trends.
"Pruitt said he hopes that this second cycle will last less than the typical 18 to 20 months, shortening to 12 months, but he admits everyone is in uncharted territory now. He did point out bright spots and opportunities, though. Retailers with strong vendor relationships have been able to work with those companies to discount in-stock merchandise, trim or cancel existing orders, and work to extend terms. Of course, vendors are also feeling the economic pinch, so their support can and will continue only for so long. The most important steps a retailer can take immediately are:
Minimize excess inventory risk now. While the holidays may generate a small sales lift, immediately following the holidays, business will likely slow as everyone tries to liquidate inventory.
Adjust your merchandising style. With the inventory you do have, work to flow it onto the floor and onto shelves in smaller amounts to keep your store looking fresh with new inventory. It will give those consumers who are still shopping a reason to keep checking back in.
Get a handle on inventory. Have a very good understanding of how much inventory you now own, and how much you will need in the future. You have to be able to maintain sufficient inventory on hand to be able to buy into margin on a consistent basis. It used to be that 10-percent open-to-buy levels were sufficient. The new rule of thumb is 25 percent.
Be realistic with your inventory management. Once you determine what your reasonable sales targets will be, and how much inventory you will need to achieve those targets, plan down, not up from there. Be conservative!
Be flexible and responsive. Where it may have been traditional to manage retail inventory in terms of monthly performance levels, in this economic climate, retailers need to shift to weekly reviews of inventory levels and manage accordingly.
Keep expenses in check. This is perhaps the most challenging aspect for smaller retailers who do not enjoy the capital backing of larger or public companies. When sales start dropping quickly, it is very difficult to push expenses down fast enough to compensate and doing so without the proper strategy can put a company at risk simply because it is eating the bottom out of its business.
Grow your gross profit dollars. One way to ensure cash flow that will keep a retail business healthy even in a depressed sales market is to ensure you are able to create more gross profit dollars by building higher initial markups and minimizing your inventory markdowns. As a guide, Pruitt has developed a formula: "For every one point of additional maintained markup (M/M), you will need to increase your in-season open-to-buy (OTB) by 5 points. So, if you want to increase your M/M by 5 percent, you need to increase your in-season OTB by 25 percent to be able to execute your plan, going after off-priced and immediate buys."
Pruitt pointed out that there are huge opportunities for stronger businesses in this economic climate, but retailers need to be sure they are positioned to take advantage of those opportunities as they come along. And, he adds, the opportunities are going to be coming fast and furious in the form of distressed merchandise, bankruptcies and more. It is also a great time to negotiate leases at low rates and build out stores at a much lower cost. He said he believes these opportunities will last for another year.
In an email notice to his retail clients, Pruitt wrote, "Business may be down by 30 percent, but remember, 70 percent of customers are still shopping. Keep your focus on these customers." Which is very good advice, considering that Pruitt sees the economic downturn lasting well into 2009. "We actually started seeing a retail slowdown starting during the April/May period of 2007. Typically, these cycles last 18 to 20 months, which meant we were anticipating a rebound just in time for the holidays this year," Pruitt told us. "But five weeks ago, the dream of a holiday rebound was shattered with further financial unraveling that was unprecedented, meaning we are in a double dip -- back into another 18- to 20-month cycle of slowing retail trends.
"Pruitt said he hopes that this second cycle will last less than the typical 18 to 20 months, shortening to 12 months, but he admits everyone is in uncharted territory now. He did point out bright spots and opportunities, though. Retailers with strong vendor relationships have been able to work with those companies to discount in-stock merchandise, trim or cancel existing orders, and work to extend terms. Of course, vendors are also feeling the economic pinch, so their support can and will continue only for so long. The most important steps a retailer can take immediately are:
Minimize excess inventory risk now. While the holidays may generate a small sales lift, immediately following the holidays, business will likely slow as everyone tries to liquidate inventory.
Adjust your merchandising style. With the inventory you do have, work to flow it onto the floor and onto shelves in smaller amounts to keep your store looking fresh with new inventory. It will give those consumers who are still shopping a reason to keep checking back in.
Get a handle on inventory. Have a very good understanding of how much inventory you now own, and how much you will need in the future. You have to be able to maintain sufficient inventory on hand to be able to buy into margin on a consistent basis. It used to be that 10-percent open-to-buy levels were sufficient. The new rule of thumb is 25 percent.
Be realistic with your inventory management. Once you determine what your reasonable sales targets will be, and how much inventory you will need to achieve those targets, plan down, not up from there. Be conservative!
Be flexible and responsive. Where it may have been traditional to manage retail inventory in terms of monthly performance levels, in this economic climate, retailers need to shift to weekly reviews of inventory levels and manage accordingly.
Keep expenses in check. This is perhaps the most challenging aspect for smaller retailers who do not enjoy the capital backing of larger or public companies. When sales start dropping quickly, it is very difficult to push expenses down fast enough to compensate and doing so without the proper strategy can put a company at risk simply because it is eating the bottom out of its business.
Grow your gross profit dollars. One way to ensure cash flow that will keep a retail business healthy even in a depressed sales market is to ensure you are able to create more gross profit dollars by building higher initial markups and minimizing your inventory markdowns. As a guide, Pruitt has developed a formula: "For every one point of additional maintained markup (M/M), you will need to increase your in-season open-to-buy (OTB) by 5 points. So, if you want to increase your M/M by 5 percent, you need to increase your in-season OTB by 25 percent to be able to execute your plan, going after off-priced and immediate buys."
Pruitt pointed out that there are huge opportunities for stronger businesses in this economic climate, but retailers need to be sure they are positioned to take advantage of those opportunities as they come along. And, he adds, the opportunities are going to be coming fast and furious in the form of distressed merchandise, bankruptcies and more. It is also a great time to negotiate leases at low rates and build out stores at a much lower cost. He said he believes these opportunities will last for another year.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Industry Must Lead Toward Sustainable Economy: Panel
NEW YORK, N.Y. -- In his acceptance speech Tuesday night, President-Elect Barack Obama acknowledged a planet in peril and global economy in tatters.
Yet he didn't connect the two crises.
"We cannot think about these two issues separately," Mindy Lubber, president of Ceres, told business leaders gathered for the opening of the Business for Social Responsibility (BSR) conference Wednesday. "They have got to be integrated."
The business community needs to take on a leadership role in addressing societal problems by incorporating sustainability into their economic policies, according to Lubber and a group of experts gathered as part of a panel discussion on how the economic crisis and presidential election will impact sustainability and industry.
They must look beyond short-term financial performance to the bigger picture, the panelists said. And despite the historic election and Obama's promise to foster a green economy, the business community must not wait for government to come to the rescue.
"Barack Obama is not the only person who has an opportunity to capture the mantle of leadership and take us in a positive direction," said Aron Cramer, BSR president and CEO. "Everyone in this room holds in her hands or his hands the very same opportunity to demonstrate leadership and take the passion for sustainability we all have ... and to be part of the story of how we build economic recovery that points in the right direction not only in the next two, three or four quarters, but over the next two, three, or four decades."
Cramer agreed that times were tough but urged attendees to rise to the challenges before them.
"If we are going to navigate a more punishing business environment, we who believe in sustainable business have to make the case that it's an essential piece of a strong economy," Cramer said.
In order to do that, he offered three three prescriptions: concentrate on the long-term, focus on value and think big.
"We have very strong short-term pressures but we have to make sure that we and all of our companies and all of those with whom we work stay focused on the long-term trends that really are shaping our world and remain very dynamic," Cramer said.
The economic downturn creates a stronger need to demonstrate that corporate social responsibility brings value to business and society, he said. Businesses need to think big by honing in on the systemic and collaborative solutions that go beyond the limitations of what an individual company can achieve.
"In fact, in a difficult economy, collaboration is often the efficient choice," Cramer said. "It's a way to leverage the power of individual companies by acting together. This is especially true on supply chains, which is why we've seen so many industry groupings come together to try to make progress jointly."
Lubber of Ceres, a coalition of investors, environmental and public interest groups, argued that building a sustainable economy is impossible if businesses continue to ignore resource challenges. She pointed to two examples of bold and practical actions companies can take to integrate sustainability into their business models.
"I want to issue a challenge to all of us and that is that we move towards universal, mandatory reporting," Lubber said. "Why (should) these issues be voluntary, why (should) they be a burden that you all share but not your competitors?"
American companies need to "scale up," she said.
"What we do in the United States needs to be exported to other countries," Lubber said. "We need to make sure our products, our facilities and our employees are part of the solution. We need to integrate principles that we apply here to our supply chain."
Panelists George Kell, executive director of the United Nations Global Compact, and Kumi Naidoo, secretary general and CEO of CIVICUS: World Alliance for Citizen Participation, called on governments and businesses to recognize and address the "imbalances" with which we live.
"The leadership that is required for governments, businesses and civil society right now is for us to be able to recognize that this world is out of balance and that we have to recognize that finding the answers to re-balance this world is going to be difficult," Naidoo said. "But if there is political will, this can be achieved."
Naidoo advised the business community to align itself with the civil society and push the new Obama administration to turn the campaign rhetoric into action.
"As somebody coming from the developing world, we have a lot of optimism ... for what you achieved yesterday but we are also not naive," said Naidoo, a South African native. "People and leaders only change when there is constant vigilance, constant pressure and people are willing to step up."
Yet he didn't connect the two crises.
"We cannot think about these two issues separately," Mindy Lubber, president of Ceres, told business leaders gathered for the opening of the Business for Social Responsibility (BSR) conference Wednesday. "They have got to be integrated."
The business community needs to take on a leadership role in addressing societal problems by incorporating sustainability into their economic policies, according to Lubber and a group of experts gathered as part of a panel discussion on how the economic crisis and presidential election will impact sustainability and industry.
They must look beyond short-term financial performance to the bigger picture, the panelists said. And despite the historic election and Obama's promise to foster a green economy, the business community must not wait for government to come to the rescue.
"Barack Obama is not the only person who has an opportunity to capture the mantle of leadership and take us in a positive direction," said Aron Cramer, BSR president and CEO. "Everyone in this room holds in her hands or his hands the very same opportunity to demonstrate leadership and take the passion for sustainability we all have ... and to be part of the story of how we build economic recovery that points in the right direction not only in the next two, three or four quarters, but over the next two, three, or four decades."
Cramer agreed that times were tough but urged attendees to rise to the challenges before them.
"If we are going to navigate a more punishing business environment, we who believe in sustainable business have to make the case that it's an essential piece of a strong economy," Cramer said.
In order to do that, he offered three three prescriptions: concentrate on the long-term, focus on value and think big.
"We have very strong short-term pressures but we have to make sure that we and all of our companies and all of those with whom we work stay focused on the long-term trends that really are shaping our world and remain very dynamic," Cramer said.
The economic downturn creates a stronger need to demonstrate that corporate social responsibility brings value to business and society, he said. Businesses need to think big by honing in on the systemic and collaborative solutions that go beyond the limitations of what an individual company can achieve.
"In fact, in a difficult economy, collaboration is often the efficient choice," Cramer said. "It's a way to leverage the power of individual companies by acting together. This is especially true on supply chains, which is why we've seen so many industry groupings come together to try to make progress jointly."
Lubber of Ceres, a coalition of investors, environmental and public interest groups, argued that building a sustainable economy is impossible if businesses continue to ignore resource challenges. She pointed to two examples of bold and practical actions companies can take to integrate sustainability into their business models.
"I want to issue a challenge to all of us and that is that we move towards universal, mandatory reporting," Lubber said. "Why (should) these issues be voluntary, why (should) they be a burden that you all share but not your competitors?"
American companies need to "scale up," she said.
"What we do in the United States needs to be exported to other countries," Lubber said. "We need to make sure our products, our facilities and our employees are part of the solution. We need to integrate principles that we apply here to our supply chain."
Panelists George Kell, executive director of the United Nations Global Compact, and Kumi Naidoo, secretary general and CEO of CIVICUS: World Alliance for Citizen Participation, called on governments and businesses to recognize and address the "imbalances" with which we live.
"The leadership that is required for governments, businesses and civil society right now is for us to be able to recognize that this world is out of balance and that we have to recognize that finding the answers to re-balance this world is going to be difficult," Naidoo said. "But if there is political will, this can be achieved."
Naidoo advised the business community to align itself with the civil society and push the new Obama administration to turn the campaign rhetoric into action.
"As somebody coming from the developing world, we have a lot of optimism ... for what you achieved yesterday but we are also not naive," said Naidoo, a South African native. "People and leaders only change when there is constant vigilance, constant pressure and people are willing to step up."
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