ForecastIQ™ : Outlook Moves from Thunderstorms to Scattered Showers for Most Retailers

COLUMBUS, OH – 3/20/2009 – The forecast for same store sales growth is looking better for several retailers this month, according to the latest ForecastIQ™ analysis (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). In addition to Aeropostale, Buckle and Hot Topic (retailers who have maintained a positive outlook), there are more retailers to add to the list of those expected to see growth over the next two months.

Fred’s and Sam’s Club improved from retailers likely to see an increase to almost certain to see an increase in same store sales over the next 60 days. Cato and Ross are also expected to see significant improvement. Both are likely to see an increase, whereas last month’s forecast predicted a likely decline in same store sales growth for each.

"There is improvement on the horizon," says Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. "A number of discount-oriented retailers, including BJs, Freds and Ross are expected to see an increase in same store sales relative to earlier predictions. While prospects for department stores still look generally bleak, there does seem to be a break in the clouds for stores offering good deals."

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Although there is a silver lining for some retailers this month, Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle, Gap, among others are almost certain to see declines.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase:

Aeropostale
Buckle
Family Dollar
Fred’s Hot Topic
Sam’s Club
Walmart

Likely to see increase:
BJ’s
Cato
Costco
Ross

Almost certain to see decline:
Abercrombie & Fitch
American Eagle
Banana Republic
Bonton
Chico’s
Dillard’s
Gap
Neiman Marcus
Nordstrom
Pacific Sun
Saks

Likely to see decline:
TJX
Wet Seal

Flat:Children’s Place

ForecastIQ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day period. Short term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies: Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors.

ForecastIQ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA). Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace.